A future without oil, coal or nuclear power
Energy expert Amory Lovins, chairman of the Rocky Mountain Institute, captivated a crowd of San Diegans with visions of a future United States thriving economically without using oil, coal or nuclear power at a lecture cosponsored by CCSE and CleanTECH San Diego held April 11. His solution is “reinventing fire,” a sweeping proposal to transition from burning fossil fuels to using efficient and renewable energy.
In his recent book, Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era, Lovins argues that it is possible to run a U.S. economy that is 2.6 times bigger by 2050 without traditional fuels and in ways that will make the economy much stronger.
“The energy future is not driven by fate, but by choice, and that choice can be flexible,” Lovins said.
Lovins’ goal is to move the U.S. energy market, with leadership from business and American ingenuity, from deriving 90 percent of energy from fossil fuels and nuclear power today to at least 80 percent from renewable sources in 40 years. He offers a wide variety of actionable solutions for four energy-intensive sectors of the economy: transportation, buildings, industry and electricity.
Transportation |
|
| Current U.S. consumption: |
13 million barrels of oil a day |
| Interesting statistics: |
Accounts for 73% of all oil used in the U.S.; costs $2 billion/day |
| Proposed solutions: |
Powering vehicles with electricity and advanced biofuels and making them lighter-weight, more aerodynamic and lower in rolling resistance. |
| Results by 2050: |
$3.8 trillion not spent on oil; vehicles with 125+ MPG-equivalent |
Buildings |
|
| Current U.S. consumption: |
120 million buildings consume 72% of U.S. electricity & 34% of natural gas |
| Interesting statistic: |
U.S. buildings use more energy than any country except China |
| Proposed solutions: |
Wider use of existing and future energy-efficient equipment and technologies, changing behaviors of occupants and applying integrative design and smart controls |
| Results by 2050: |
$0.7 trillion savings; energy use cut by 25-50% |
Industry |
|
| Current U.S. consumption: | 24.4 quads (quadrillion BTUs) of primary energy; 25% of U.S. total |
| Interesting statistic: | More than 75% of energy used comes from fossil fuels |
| Proposed solutions: | Wider adoption of energy-efficient technologies, integrative design, full use of combined heat and power (cogeneration), fuel switching and using fewer materials |
| Results by 2050: | $0.5 trillion savings; 9-13% less energy use |
Electricity |
|
| Current U.S. consumption: | 3,800 terawatt-hours/year (3,880 billion kWh/ YR) |
| Interesting statistic: | U.S. system greatest engineering feat of 20th century |
| Proposed solutions: |
Varied, largely distributed renewable energy supply, superefficient end use, smarter and more diversified electricity grid, improvements in marketplace and regulation |
| Results by 2050: | Dollar value not calculated; 80% U.S. energy from renewable sources |
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